Oklahoma State at Baylor odds, picks and predictions
The Baylor Bears (3-1) welcome the Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0) to McLane Stadium Saturday. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Oklahoma State vs. Baylor odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
After Baylor lost 26-20 at BYU, a game they had in the palm of their hand and let slip away. the Bears beat Texas State 42-7 and then Iowa State 31-24 last week.
They're led by QB Blake Shapen who has 7 TDs and only 1 INT. The real offensive weapon for the Bears is RB Richard Reese, who has 315 yards on 55 carries, a 5.7 yards-per-carry average, and 6 TDs.
Oklahoma State has been perfect this season and is nicely following up its 12-2 campaign a year ago. OSU's most notable win is a 34-17 victory over Arizona State, so the competition hasn't been up to par yet.
QB Spencer Sanders is once against the leader of this program. The dual-threat quarterback has 916 yards and 10 TDs wit onlly 1 INT. OSU's 51.7 points per game rank No. 1 in the nation. Coupled with a defense allowing just 22.7 points per game, OSU is the real deal.
Oklahoma State is No. 7 and Baylor 14th in the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
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Oklahoma State at Baylor odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:5 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Oklahoma State +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Baylor -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Oklahoma State +2.5 (-107) | Baylor -2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 55.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Oklahoma State at Baylor picks and predictions
Prediction
Baylor 28, Oklahoma State 24
Money line
PASS.
I like Baylor enough here to pass on the money line option and play the points.
Against the spread
BET BAYLOR -2.5 (-115).
Everyone seems to be on Oklahoma State with well over 70% of the money coming in on the Cowboys. That should be exactly what the books want as the undefeated Sooners seem like the better play getting points here.
The Bears have a competent offense that ranks in the top 25, and they have something the Cowboys don't - a tested defense. Baylor gave up 26 points to the QB Jaren Hall-led BYU Cougars on the road, and that was in overtime. It has allowed just 225 passing yards and under 80 rushing yards per game.
The Bears turnaround since a 2-7 season in 2020 has been mainly on the offensive end where they've averaged over 40 points per game. Sanders is an elite option, but Sharpen and Reese have consistently gotten the job done as well.
I'll back the home side at -2.5 here and fade where all the money is headed.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 55.5 (-110).
It's easy to look at 2 teams both averaging over 40 points per game and think the over is the play. It very well could be as well, but the Baylor defense is no joke.
Hall is a top-tier QB threat in college, and Baylor held him to under 300 passing yards and under 30 rushing yards. The Bears didn't allow a player in that game north of 35 rushing yards.
On the other hand, OSU has 10 sacks and over 20 tackles for a loss through 3 games this season, allowing under 25 points per game as well. While the offenses may be the focal point, the defense should also thrive.
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