Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards odds, picks and predictions

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Toronto Raptors (21-21) visit the nation's capital Friday to play the Washington Wizards (23-22). The tip-off at the Capital One Arena is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Raptors vs. Wizards odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Toronto has lost four of its past five games including back-to-back road losses at the Miami Heat Monday and at the Dallas Mavericks Wednesday. The Raptors are 23-19 against the spread (ATS) and 23-19 Over/Under (O/U).

Washington has alternated between winning and losing over its past four games with the latest being a 119-118 loss to the Brooklyn Nets Wednesday as 1-point home favorites. The Wizards are 19-25-1 ATS and 24-20-1 O/U.

The Raptors are 2-1 straight-up (SU) and ATS versus the Wizards this season with two straight victories over Washington.

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Raptors at Wizards odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.

Money line: Raptors -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Wizards -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Raptors +1.5 (-120) | Wizards -1.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 217.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Raptors at Wizards key injuries

Raptors

SG Gary Trent Jr. (ankle) questionable
C Khem Birch (nose) out

Wizards

None.

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Raptors at Wizards odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Wizards 113, Raptors 107

Money line

BET the WIZARDS (-115) for 1 unit because the Raptors (-105) underperform versus bad teams.

For instance, Washington has a negative net rating despite its winning record. But, Toronto ranks 26th in points per 100 possessions differential versus teams in the top-10 of adjusted net rating and 25th in ATS margin, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Also, the Wizards match up very well against the Raptors. Toronto ranks fourth in points off of turnovers per game and second in second-chance points per game (PPG). While Washington is seventh in points off of turnovers allowed per game and 13th in second-chance PPG allowed.

Furthermore, the Wizards are seventh in non-garbage time offensive free-throw rate whereas the Raptors have the second-worst non-garbage time defensive free-throw rate (CTG).

Moreover, Toronto gets out in transition at the fifth-highest rate but has a below-average offensive efficiency in the fast break. Washington ranks third in defensive efficiency versus fast-break offense and gives up the fewest fast-break PPG.

On top of that, the Wizards actually have a better offensive effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and defensive eFG% than the Raptors. Also, Washington's defense ranks first in shot quality allowed, per CTG.

Finally, this feels like a trap spot Raptors. The Wizards are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games with four of those ATS losses coming versus bad teams such as Portland, Orlando (twice) and Oklahoma City. But, Toronto has a positive net rating and is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games.

BET the WIZARDS (-115).

Against the spread

PASS since Washington's money line is only 10 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Wizards -1.5 (-105). Don't be cheap, just bet Washington SU.

Over/Under

"LEAN" to the OVER 217.5 (-115) for a quarter-unit because my numbers put the Raptors-Wizards total in the low 220s since Washington should stack easy points at the foul line and score more PPG at home.

However, both rank 20th or lower in both pace and 3-point attempt rate. Also, Toronto has gone Under the total in six straight games and the Under has cashed in four of the past Raptors-Wizards meetings.

My favorite wager in this game is Washington's money line, but I "LEAN" to the OVER 217.5 (-115).

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