Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians odds, picks and prediction
The Cleveland Indians (48-46) host the Tampa Bay Rays (58-39) Friday for the second game of their four-game series at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Rays vs. Indians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Tampa Bay beat Cleveland in the series opener 5-4 in extra innings thanks to a two-run top of the ninth-inning rally to tie the game followed by a go-ahead RBI single by DH Austin Meadows in the top of the 10th.
Season series: Rays lead 4-0.
LHP Josh Fleming is Tampa's projected starter. Fleming is 7-5 with a 3.93 ERA (73 1/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 5.3 K/9 across seven starts and eight relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 9-0, with 4 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 1 K Saturday at the Atlanta Braves.
- Fleming appeared in Tampa's 4-0 victory over Cleveland July 7 with a stat line of 2 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
RHP Zach Plesac makes his 13th start for the Rays. Plesac is 5-3 with a 4.19 ERA (68 2/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 4-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 3 K at the Oakland Athletics Sunday.
- 2021 home splits: 1-1 with a 3.82 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 0.85 WHIP and a 13.0 K/BB rate (1.7 K/BB rate on the road).
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Rays at Indians odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:28 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Rays -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Indians +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+125) | Indians +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Indians 6, Rays 4
Money line (ML)
BET the INDIANS (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because Fleming has been rocked this season in his road outings.
Cleveland's lineup has struggled vs. left-handed pitching this year and Tampa's lineup has been very productive against righties so I want to focus my wager on the starting pitching matchup.
Fleming has a 6.35 ERA on the road (1.83 home ERA), 1.35 WHIP (0.86 home WHIP), a .852 opponent's OPS on the road (.451 opponent's OPS at home) and has given up seven home runs in away games to just two at home.
You could make the argument that Fleming's overall numbers should mirror his road stats more so than his home.
Fleming has a .176 BAbip at home (.291 road BAbip) and an 80.7% left-on-base percentage (61.8% road LOB%).
Since BAbip and LOB% are considered flukey metrics, the home-to-road discrepancy would indicate Fleming has been very lucky at home because his .291 BAbip on the road is the MLB-average and the home BAbip is shockingly low.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS since the Indians +0.5 (-140) First 5 Innings price is too steep since Tampa Bay has the fourth-highest ATS cover rate on the road this season (30-19 ATS).
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight "LEAN" to the OVER 9 (-115) for a quarter unit because Tampa Bay is 15-5-2 O/U as a road favorite this season, Cleveland is 9-6-1 O/U as a home underdog and BetMGM opened this total at 8.5, but the overnight MLB bettors steamed the total up to the current number.
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