San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction
The San Diego Padres (57-42) and Miami Marlins (41-56) continue their four-game series at loanDepot park Thursday. Game 2's first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Padres vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego held off Miami to win the series opener 3-2 as Padres starting LHP Blake Snell pitched six innings, allowing one earned run on three hits and three walks with eight strikeouts.
Season series: Padres lead 1-0.
RHP Joe Musgrove is on the rubber for the Padres. Musgrove is 5-7 with a 3.14 ERA (103 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 over 18 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 3 K Sunday in San Diego's 8-7 loss at the Washington Nationals.
- 2021 road splits: 2-3 with a 3.52 ERA (46 IP, 18 ER), 0.94 WHIP and 4.5 K/BB rate in eight starts and one relief appearance.
RHP Zach Thompson takes the hill for the Marlins. Thompson is 2-2 with a 1.93 ERA (28 IP, 6 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 over six starts in his rookie season.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 0 ER (2 R), 2 H, 2 BB and 2 K in Miami's 4-2 loss at the Philadelphia Phillies Saturday.
- 2021 home splits: 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA (11 IP, 1 ER), 8 H, 2 BB and 17 K in two starts.
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Padres at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:11 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+100) | Marlins +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Padres 5, Marlins 2
Money line (ML)
"LEAN" to the PADRES (-165) because there's been heavy "sharp" action on San Diego and Miami's lineup has been awful against right-handed pitching this season.
The Padres opened up as roughly a -130 favorite before the market steamed San Diego all the way up to the current price.
However, part of my "lean" on this game is the Padres being one of the few MLB teams that could get "public" money because of their star power.
Furthermore, the Marlins are in the bottom 10 vs. right-handed pitching in several advanced hitting metrics, including wOBA, wRC+, OPS, BB/K rate and hard-contact rate.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS since I only "lean" to San Diego winning this game outright and am not willing to lay it with the Padres -1.5 (+100) because they are just 15-19 ATS as road favorites this season and Miami is 12-7 ATS as a home dog.
Over/Under (O/U)
"LEAN" to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) for a tiny wager as another "follow the money" play since the market has bet the Padres-Marlins total down from the 8-run opener to the current number.
Thompson has pitched well in Miami so far in his rookie season and Musgrove's pitching results have been pretty static regardless of where he's pitching.
I prefer San Diego's money line more than the Under in this spot because the Padres are 5-1 O/U in Musgrove's last six starts.
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