Super Bowl 55 breakdown: Who has the edge once Chiefs and Buccaneers take field?

The reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs enter Super Bowl 55 as three-point favorites – a good indication it should be a close contest. And sounds about right given K.C. beat the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay 27-24 on Nov. 29. 

Since that Week 12 meeting, the teams have combined to lose once – the Chiefs' inconsequential Week 17 defeat to the Chargers, a game quarterback Patrick Mahomes and several other key starters missed to rest for the postseason. 

"This team is a very tough team to beat. They haven’t been beaten (at full strength) in a long time. They’ve got a great offense, got a great defense, really well coached, very good on special teams," Bucs quarterback Tom Brady said Thursday of the Chiefs, winners of 25 of their past 27 games.

"They’re going to challenge us, and we’ve gotta answer the challenge."

Kansas City coach Andy Reid was complimentary himself, noting differences in the Buccaneers during their seven-game winning streak.

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"They’re playing organized football all the way around in all three phases," he said. "They’re not making many mistakes, they’re creating turnovers on the defensive side, they’re keeping the turnover level down on the offensive side.

"They’ve got the good wide receivers that we’ve faced before, but I think they’re probably more on the same page with Brady than they were back when we played them. So, all the way around, they’re healthier, and they’re playing at a higher level.”

So who's got the advantage as the Chiefs try to become the first team to repeat since Brady's New England Patriots in 2004 ... while the Bucs try to secure their second Lombardi Trophy and TB12's seventh?

When the Bucs run the ball

In three postseason games, Tampa Bay has averaged 115 yards rushing – 20 yards better than its regular-season average (94.9), which was fifth-worst in the league. RB Leonard Fournette has been particularly effective, his 70.3-yard playoff rushing average more than doubling his regular-season output after Ronald Jones' quad injury afforded him more touches. Kansas City's run defense was porous in the first half of the season (142.8 yards allowed per game), solid in the second half (101.5 ypg) but has regressed over its last three outings, playoffs included (125.3 ypg). And could be plenty of room for Jones and Fournette to roam if the Chiefs focus on stopping Tampa Bay's talented wideouts.

► Advantage: Buccaneers

When the Chiefs run the ball

Third-year RB Darrel Williams made his first NFL start in the divisional round, responding with a career-high 78 rushing yards against Cleveland. But Kansas City's middling ground attack has been hampered by injuries to rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le'Veon Bell, and the postseason production is further skewed by the 50-yard reverse WR Mecole Hardman produced in the AFC title game. With the offensive line in flux, and the Bucs packing the NFL's top-rated run defense each of the past two defenses – and further bolstered by 347-pound DL Vita Vea's return from a broken ankle two weeks ago – the Chiefs might struggle to achieve balance.

► Advantage: Buccaneers

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When the Bucs pass the ball

Since losing to K.C., Tampa Bay has been nearly unstoppable through the air. Brady has been on fire most of the past seven games (2,193 yards, 19 TDs, 110.8 passer rating), though he was picked off three times by Green Bay in the NFC title game. WR Antonio Brown, who didn't play against the Packers because of a knee injury, appears on track to play Sunday. The Chiefs have a solid group of corners and play-making All-Pro S Tyrann Mathieu to combat WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and TE Rob Gronkowski. But Kansas City doesn't get a whole lot of pressure aside from DE Frank Clark and DT Chris Jones, a fellow Pro Bowler, and will be opposed by a stalwart Bucs O-line that only surrenders about a sack per game.

► Advantage: Buccaneers

When the Chiefs pass the ball

There may be no more gifted quarterback in the league than Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes, and he put Tampa Bay into a 17-0 first-quarter hole in the last meeting – finding WR Tyreek Hill for two TDs and 203 yards in the opening period alone. Hill scored once more in the Chiefs' victory, a day that saw Mahomes pass for a season-best 462 yards ... though the Bucs stemmed the bleeding when they switched to a zone. Hard to argue that Hill and Travis Kelce, whose 1,416 receiving yards in 2020 set a single-season record for tight ends, are not the NFL's premier receiving duo – and WR Sammy Watkins, a Super Bowl 54 hero, and Hardman only add to this group's quick-strike potential.

However ... the Bucs boast a very capable pass rush, led by OLBs Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul, who combined to take Packers QB Aaron Rodgers down five times in the NFC championship game, which Green Bay All-Pro LT David Bakhtiari missed with a knee injury. Now Barrett and JPP – along with Vea, DL Ndamukong Suh and LB Devin White – will take aim at a Kansas City O-line stripped of both starting tackles due to injuries. And if Tampa Bay, a team that loves to utilize the blitz, can generate sufficient pressure with its front four, DC Todd Bowles should have additional options when it comes to coverage schemes targeted at Kelce, Hill et al.

Of further concern for the Chiefs, Mahomes' injured toe has limited his mobility recently. White and fellow LB Lavonte David are among the game's most capable off-ball duos and won't allow Hill and Kelce to operate over the middle unfettered. The Bucs are also getting solid production from their young secondary – CB Sean Murphy-Bunting has picked off a pass in all three playoff games – though safeties Jordan Whitehead (shoulder) and rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. (ankle) are banged up. All things considered, this projects as the matchup Super Bowl 55 could well hinge on.

► Advantage: Chiefs

Special teams

Byron Pringle and Hardman give K.C. a dangerous return tandem, each scoring a TD in 2020, and Tampa Bay's kick coverage units have struggled. Chiefs K Harrison Butker and Bucs counterpart Ryan Succop are both more reliable on field goals than extra points, though Butker has a much stronger leg. Both teams had more total touchdowns than punts.

► Advantage: Chiefs

Coaching

After years of falling short of the Lomardi Trophy – and often getting heckled for his late-game clock management – the Chiefs' Andy Reid is suddenly on the verge of a rare Super Bowl repeat and a fast track to first-ballot Hall of Fame status. His coordinators, Eric Bieniemy (offense) and Steve Spagnuolo (defense) are first rate.

Tampa Bay's Bruce Arians got two rings in three Super Bowl trips as an assistant with the Steelers, but this is his first Super Sunday as the head man. OC Byron Leftwich was a backup quarterback for Pittsburgh's 2008 champions, and Bowles was a starting safety for Washington's 1987 champions. Neither coordinator has coached in a Super Bowl before.

► Advantage: Chiefs

Intangibles

The Buccaneers will become the first team in league history to "host" the Super Bowl in their home stadium. Tampa players have raved about the convenience of remaining local while preparing for the game and trying to stay safe amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

However the Chiefs, who will fly into Tampa on Saturday afternoon, have also had the benefit of practicing at their own facilities in this strangest of Super Bowl weeks and are essentially treating the game like an ordinary road trip. They did have two players on the reserve/COVID-19 list this week but WR Demarcus Robinson will be available for kickoff.

A troubling incident came to light Friday when news surfaced that Reid's son, assistant linebackers coach Britt Reid, was involved in a car accident in Kansas City that sent two children to the hospital, one a 5-year-old who suffered life-threatening injuries. Britt Reid will not travel with the team to Tampa as police continue their investigation.

The Kansas City roster has the benefit of last year's Super Bowl experience in Miami, far more Chiefs with Super Sunday bona fides than the Bucs have ... though Brady, Gronkowski and Pierre-Paul are among those with plenty of war stories to share with their teammates. 

Tampa is currently scheduled to get morning thunderstorms Sunday, though temperatures should remain mild to end what's been a rather cool and blustery week. But if any inclement weather lingers or a slow track develops, the better-balanced Bucs might just enjoy an edge in their Raymond James Stadium home – a place where Succop might also fare better, given his familiarity, if the winds continue to kick up.

►​​​​​​​ Advantage: Buccaneers

PICK:Bucs 36-33

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Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis

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