NMSU plans for 5 percent enrollment decrease next year

LAS CRUCES - New Mexico State University's new chancellor and president proposed a set of milestones for turning the university around on Wednesday.

The document also presented a draft rubric for how university regents will evaluate and award bonuses to Chancellor Dan Arvizu and President John Floros, who were both hired this spring to replace Chancellor Garrey Carruthers.

"We're in a hole," Arvizu told the regents before a packed meeting room. "We're going to stop digging, we're going to turn it around, and we expect that by next year at this time we will at least have stabilized our financial condition and performance." 

A webcast of the entire meeting can be viewed online here.

Arvizu said the goals of the previously adopted "Vision 2020" plan would continue to serve as a foundation: turning around sinking numbers in student enrollment, retention and graduation, as well as successful employment after graduation, research funding at the university, and annual giving. 

The problem, Arvizu said, was reversing a downward spiral in some metrics and move on to aspirational goals expressed in the plan. 

Floros said this presentation was the beginning of a plan to seek input across the university system to make a plan "that is owned by everybody" and incorporates qualitative measurements as well as quantitative. 

"We don't want to exclude creative parts of the university," Floros said, arguing that future careers will demand "the ability to think broader than just one specific discipline." 

The two executives proposed they be judged by eight categories: student success, research and creativity at the university, outreach and strategic initiatives, financial stewardship, fundraising and foundation relationships, athletics (which they said they hoped will become more financially self-sufficient), their leadership and organizational effectiveness, and their relationship with the board of regents, to whom the chancellor and president answer. 

Arvizu said a more comprehensive plan would be available in January.

A grim enrollment forecast

In terms of measurable goals, Arvizu and Floros said they would need to make a "bootleg turn" in total enrollment, which they projected would fall from this fall's total enrollment of 14,289 to 13,600 next fall under current trends, a nearly 5 percent decrease.

"It will take ten years to get to the point where we were ten years ago," Floros said.

Given the continuing decline expected, Floros proposed their target enrollment for the fall 2019 semester would be 14,300 — essentially halting the decline.

"We believe that this is a very aggressive target," he said. "If we manage to do that for next year, that will indicate that we're turning that boat around and we can then start to grow our enterprise."

Included in its goals for improving the university's fiscal health was increased self-sufficiency of the athletics department, and improving net revenue from tuition without further tuition increases, a commitment underscored by regent Kari Mitchell.

There was also discussion at the meeting about fundraising and a goal of achieving donor support from 10 percent of NMSU alumni by 2020, up from the current rate of 6 percent. 

In research funding, the leaders targeted a $10 million increase in research expenditure for next year, to nearly $105 million, citing the university's mandate as a land grant institution, as well as the importance of research in attracting faculty and for student retention and learning.

Floros told regents he was committed to raising compensation for staff and faculty. "We know that we're one of the lowest-paying institutions in the country," he said.

Floros also said he and Arvizu will develop models for measuring productivity and efficiency down to the individual employee level, and that those would take shape following further evaluation and discussion with personnel. 

About bonuses

Arvizu said that suggesting performance metrics to the regents was a requirement of his and Floros' contracts, defining how their job performance would be evaluated and what bonuses would be paid to them on top of their salaries.

The two leaders earn a combined $950,000, a substantial increase over the $373,450 earned by Carruthers, who held both the chancellor and president job titles. Additionally, Arvizu is eligible to earn a 30 percent performance-based bonus in his first year with increased bonuses up to 50 percent later. Floros is eligible for similar bonuses ranging from 25 to 40 percent.

Arvizu said the university's current position was a baseline for any bonus consideration, and they did not expect "credit given for continuing declines" but that any awards would be based on "real tangible, measurable additional revenues that are a result of our interventions."

Regent Margie Vela expressed surprise at the projected enrollment decline for this year, and Mitchell noted the danger of setting an artificially low baseline for assessing the chancellor's and president's performance. Nonetheless, Mitchell said she was satisfied they had "designed a payout program that doesn't reward against that potentially low baseline." 

After discussion and recommendations by regents for refined targets, the board unanimously voted to approve the strategic direction, conceptual design and performance evaluation elements Arvizu and Floros presented. Other aspects of their presentation, including milestones beyond next year, would be determined through a process including input from regents, deans, academic departments, students and personnel across the university. 

In closing, the regents conveyed their support and confidence in Arvizu and Floros.

"The fact that we're adopting your concept and giving you the latitude to come back on metrics," Mitchell said, constituted "a vote of absolute, emphatic confidence in our new leadership team."

Algernon D'Ammassa can be reached at 575-541-5451, adammassa@lcsun-news.com or @AlgernonActor on Twitter.